Of networks' lost youth? Off to cable...

Study: Share of 18-34 viewers crossed over

By A.J. Livsey http://69.20.6.242/news2004/jan04/jan26/2_tues/news3tuesday.html

Ever since the huge losses among the broadcast networks among adults 18-34 became apparent earlier this year, the suspicion has been that many of those young people were exiting to cable.
Now there's some evidence to support that suspicion.
In the first half of the season, overall ratings for broadcast networks are off 11.6 percent among 18-34s from 2002, to a 12.9 rating, while cable is up 4.8 percent, to a 13.0 rating.
That’s based on Magna Global USA analysis of Nielsen Media numbers for the first 17 weeks of the 2003-04 season.
Steve Sternberg, director of audience analysis for Magna, says part of the reason is that younger viewers don’t separate broadcast networks from cable networks, which is why teen ratings on cable surpassed the broadcast networks a while ago.
“Younger viewers are much more program-oriented than channel-oriented to begin with because they grew up with more channels, where older viewers tend to turn on the broadcast networks first.�
The appeal of younger-skewing programs on typically older cable networks also accounts from some of the migration from the networks.
Sternberg points to the older-skewing Bravo, a network that has successfully appealed to a younger demographic with the success of “Queer Eye for the Straight Guy.�
Ad-supported cable networks in general are commanding higher combined ratings than the six broadcast networks among households and teens. In addition, cable networks have shown growth in every major demo over 2002 while the broadcast networks have dropped more than 10 percent in some demos.
Sternberg says cable’s growth isn’t surprising, given the steady rise in penetration of cable in U.S. households.
“As more and more homes get more and more choices, they’re going to start checking them out,� he says. “It’s mostly a function of choice. As you add more channels, where are those viewers going to come from? The biggest piece of the pie, which are the broadcast networks.�
It’s not only young adult demos that are following that trend of diminishing broadcast ratings and increased cable ratings. With rare exception, every network except Fox has seen a drop in ratings from 2002 among all key demos. Only CBS held steady among 25-54s, and it grew just 1.2 percent, from an 8.4 rating to an 8.5 rating among households.
Fox, benefiting largely from a baseball ratings boost early in the season, has maintained ratings or posted slight gains over 2002, the largest of which is a 7 percent increase among households.
Meanwhile, cable ratings are up 6.7 percent among households over 2002. That growth, coupled with a 2.4 percent drop in broadcast network ratings, means cable has surpassed broadcast in ratings for the demo.
“Overall television usage is not going up because people are getting more channels,� says Sternberg, “ so the bulk of [cable ratings] is coming from the broadcast networks."
In 2002, broadcast led with a 29.2 household rating compared to cable’s 28.2 rating. Through the first 17 weeks of this year, cable’s 30.1 rating dominates broadcast’s 28.5 rating.
That’s a greater discrepancy than in fourth quarter, when broadcast’s 28.6 rating was closer to cable’s 29.9 rating.
Despite the growing discrepancy, broadcast and cable networks continue to offer different advantages.
Fewer broadcast networks are required to reach a larger audience, while only a few cable networks average more than a 1.0 household rating.
And although individual cable networks reach a smaller audience than the broadcast networks, they offer advertisers a more targeted audience and a more affordable buy.